Lauren Fisher, Principal Analyst at eMarketer, will speak at AdExchanger's upcoming Programmatic IO San Francisco conference, taking place April 29-30.
Programmatic is still growing like a weed.
In its October forecast, eMarketer predicted programmatic in digital display will grow from $47 billion in 2018 to $69 billion in 2020. This week on the podcast, eMarketer Principal Analyst Lauren Fisher describes how her team arrived at those numbers.
EMarketer defines programmatic as “automation in the buying, selling or fulfillment of display ads.” It’s an intentionally broad definition that includes open exchange buying, private marketplaces and guaranteed deals for video and connected TV. Private deal types in particular have surged dramatically and will capture 80% of all programmatic dollars by 2020, the researcher predicts.
Fisher acknowledges an industry correction is underway that could shift spending back to open exchanges.
“If we get transparency and viewability and fraud to a point where it isn’t as much of an issue, will that money move back into the open markets? Truthfully, I don’t know,” she says. “I think there’s a lot that would need to happen to get buyers and sellers to feel comfortable enough to put it back into the open markets.”
Even if open RTB does come roaring back, there are incentives on both sides to maintain robust private deal structures.
“A lot of what’s beneficial for some of these private deals is that you’re getting a premium asset with it,” Fisher says. “A publisher is not going to put their first-party data into the open markets, but they’ll make it available in a private marketplace or in some sort of a programmatic guarantee.”
Also in this episode: Duopoly challengers! What people get wrong about in-housing.