Home Analysts Online Video Continues To Drive Digital Growth Says ZenithOptimedia’s Barnard

Online Video Continues To Drive Digital Growth Says ZenithOptimedia’s Barnard

SHARE:

ZenithOptimediaThe research team at ZenithOptimedia reported yesterday that “total internet ad spend to grow 12.6%, 15.8% and 16.1% in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The brightest spot in terms of online ad growth will be online video.” Read more on Radio & Television Business Report.

Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting at Publicis’ ZenithOptimedia, discussed the latest predictions and their implications.

AdExchanger.com: Where is the momentum in digital today? What channels are leading the pack?

JB: Social media and online video are the main drivers of digital growth today. Paid search is being restrained by the shift from desktop searches to mobile searches, which is from high-cost to low-cost environments. Classified is restrained by weak employment and property markets.

What surprised you in the data of the most recent forecast?

The biggest surprise was probably the full extent of the disruption in the Middle East. We already knew it was having a big effect (we scaled back our +6.6% forecast in December to +0.1% in April), but our new forecast of -12.1% growth this year was one of the largest downward revisions I remember making in such a short time.

How do you see mobile impacting display advertising?

Thanks to the rapid spread of smartphones and better connectivity, mobile is now a very promising ad medium, and is the fastest growing component of digital spend in the US. It will still only account for 3% of US spend this year, and less in other markets, so it will be some time before the growth of mobile starts exerting serious pressure on other display media.

Where will it mete out for newspapers? Do they go digital?

So far we see no end to the continued decline of newspaper ad expenditure. It’s still the second-largest medium, though, and it will be able to support paper businesses for many years to come. Certainly newspapers need to make the most of their digital businesses, but I can’t see physical newspapers entirely disappearing for a long, long time.

Are you seeing the affects of audience buying in your figures?

Subscribe

AdExchanger Daily

Get our editors’ roundup delivered to your inbox every weekday.

Advertisers and agencies have been investing heavily in research and tools to allow them to target the right people, and target them in the most effective way. In the short term this may actually reduce the expenditure of some advertisers, if they can find more efficient ways of reaching their core audience, but in the long term it will be good for expenditure by improve the return on investment in advertising.

By John Ebbert

Must Read

Comic: No One To Play With

Google Pulls The Plug On Topics, PAAPI And Other Major Privacy Sandbox APIs (As The CMA Says ‘Cheerio’)

Google’s aborted cookie crackdown ends with a quiet CMA sign-off and a sweeping phaseout of Privacy Sandbox technologies, from the Topics API to PAAPI.

The Trade Desk’s Auction Evolutions Bring High Drama To The Prebid Summit

TTD shared new details about OpenAds features that let publishers see for themselves whether it’s running a fair auction. But tension between TTD and Prebid hung over the event.

Monopoly Man looks on at the DOJ vs. Google ad tech antitrust trial (comic).

How Google Stands In The DOJ’s Ad Tech Antitrust Suit, According To Those Who Tracked The Trial

The remedies phase of the Google antitrust trial concluded last week. And after 11 days in the courtroom, there is a clearer sense of where Judge Leonie Brinkema is focused on, and how that might influence what remedies she put in place.

Privacy! Commerce! Connected TV! Read all about it. Subscribe to AdExchanger Newsletters

The Ad Context Protocol Aims To Make Sense Of Agentic Ad Demand

The AI advertising agents will need their own trade group eventually. For now though, a bunch of companies are forming the Ad Context Protocol, or AdCP.

OUTFRONT Is Using Agencies’ AI Enthusiasm To Spur Wider Programmatic OOH Adoption

The desire for a data-driven reinvention of OOH inspired OUTFRONT to create agentic AI tools for executing and measuring OOH campaigns and comparing OOH to other channels.

Inside PubDesk, The Trade Desk’s New Dashboard That Shows What Buyers Actually Care About

A peek inside PubDesk, The Trade Desk’s new dashboard that gives sellers detailed info on how buyers value their inventory.