While this projection appears strong, eMarketer expects growth to peak next year before “dropping sharply” by about 40% in 2018 as viewer attention fragments across multiple channels.
The main reason for a projected decline in growth rate is that eMarketer’s original estimation forecasted addressable TV against a much smaller household base. And if penetration increases among DAI-enabled set-top boxes, marketers might have more precision in their campaigns (meaning they would foreseeably target a smaller, but more specific audience base).
And, eMarketer is only forecasting the addressable TV growth rate for two years (through 2018) because it “could well accelerate” as dynamic ad insertion grows, the researcher says.
The market for addressable and programmatic TV is still tough to quantify because it is so novel.
One ongoing challenge when deciphering between addressable and programmatic TV is that buyers and media companies each classify their buys differently.
Sometimes programmatic video and programmatic TV teams are one and the same. And while some agency buyers consider over-the-top buys within their “traditional” or linear TV conversations, some have dedicated “advanced TV units.”
EMarketer plans to continue breaking out addressable TV ad spend separately from programmatic – the two don’t currently overlap. Streaming video (or digital video, as eMarketer defines it) will be a separate category as well.