"These direct sales transacted with automation are the perfect testing ground for publishers to trial RTB with a limited amount of premium inventory and a set list of buyers," states the researcher.
Examined by region, IDC puts U.S. spending way out in front with an expected $2.2 billion this year, up 105% compared to last year. The U.K. is growing similarly fast but is a much smaller RTB market, with $212 million, which is 12% of total display sales there. Only two continental European markets were examined, Germany and France, and of the two Germany is embracing RTB faster. The market there is $168 million or 8% of total display ad sales, coimpared to $37 million or 8% of display sales.
Over the next four years the researcher sees RTB share by country equalizing somewhat. From the white paper: "By 2016 RTB-based direct sales will contribute 13% of total RTB sales in the United States, 8% in the United Kingdom, 16% in Germany, and 15% in France. In Japan and China, RTB-based sales of premium inventory will stand for 10% and 18%, respectively, in 2016."
The report is decidedly less bullish than an August forecast by Parks Associates, suggesting RTB will support 34% of display ad sales by 2017. (AdExchanger story)
IDC says mobile RTB is running about three years behind the display cycle, and will progress slowly owing in part to latency issues. On the other hand, IDC writes, "What may also accelerate mobile RTB growth is the fact that most mobile advertising is being sold through advertising networks anyway rather than by publishers directly, which will make it easier to transfer it onto a mobile ad exchange/RTB platform."