AdExchanger.com Predictions for 2011: Agencies – Part II

AdExchanger.com 2011 Predictions: Agency AdExchanger.com reached out to the agency community for their predictions about the digital advertising ecosystem in 2011. This is part two of predictions from the agency world.

Click a name below to begin, or scroll:

Adam Cahill, EVP, Media at Hill Holliday

There will be a government-mandated Do Not Track list in place (or at least in the works). But regulation will turn out to have been a boogeyman; it won’t affect the industry in any material way because it won¹t be widely adopted by consumers. (prediction sent pre-announcement)
Google TV will be viewed as an emerging success. We¹ll be talking about how TV is Google’s next core business. And the TV networks will be wishing they had played nice to begin with as they watch Google’s power grow.
Half of display impressions will be available through the exchanges on a daily basis, and some small amount of TV inventory will be available through DSPs (probably through Invite + Google TV Ads).

Jason Deal, SVP, Digital Group Account Director, Initiative USA

Video starts its rapid ascendency towards becoming THE standard digital ad type, causing rich-media in particular to take a hit. Marketers stop troubling over whether or not to do web-specific video creative as research and results show that their TV spot can be effective if its delivered using targeting data and is relevant to the customer.

Dax Hamman, iCrossing, VP

Time to bring out the 2011 (digital) crystal ball and swap thoughts about what comes next in this dynamic industry of ours.
I believe we will see a continuing shift of marketing dollars towards Performance Display, the goal to generate an ROI by targeting individuals with intent rather than simply shouting at the crowd.
Techniques such as site and search retargeting will grow as part of this, but whilst 2011 will be filled with lots of attribution modeling talk, it is unlikely to the ‘year of attribution’ – that will be for next year’s crystal ball. Or the next.

Will Margiloff – Founder / CEO, Innovation Interactive

DSPs will continue to grow in popularity as a way to access exchanges BUT will not be the end all be all that folks think they can be. Buyers will start to realize the necessity for proprietary inventory, algorithms that provide unique opportunities. The DSP hype will mellow a bit as marketers and agencies decide how best to use these platforms.
RTB will remain the most important acronym on the supply side.
Data will become more transparent, as big companies will attempt to utilize data exchanges to manage the purchasing of their data more directly. Instead of buying blind segments, marketers will be able to buy specific companies data using these platforms and know if there has been explicit consent or not.
Attribution will become even more important in a client’s vocabulary – and not only conversion attribution on the media they are buying, but attribution across the data they are buying as well.

Ed Montes, CEO, Adnetik

Several “premiere” or well known media brands/publishers will band to form premiere private ad exchanges. These exchanges will further prove the potential for exchange based buying and the power of information asymmetry.
There will be consolidation of providers of enabling technologies such as DSP’s and DMP’s, not ad networks.

Brendan Moorcroft, CEO, Cadreon

2011 marks a new transformation for the Audience Marketplace in three words: Consolidate, Build, Scale. In 2011 Cadreon believes:

Major consolidation across the DSP, DMP and other service environment will take place, so we should all expect to see fewer logos on Terry Kawaja’s chart by the end of the year.
Building new and proprietary data assets will become a necessity to rise above the commoditization of third party data. Cadreon will begin to work with advertisers to build client-side data platforms, to successfully leverage internal data assets across their marketing activities. Additionally, cross-channel (i.e. display, video, TV and mobile) audience-based buys, leveraging identical centralized data-sets will become a reality.
More and more media companies will supply have value inventory to the trading desks through premium marketplaces.
Audience-based buying across multiple channels – at scale – will become a reality.

Megan Pagliuca, Vice President of Display Media, Merkle Inc.

Cross channel measurement. Measurement and more specifically attribution will be addressed for advertisers not only to understand the impact of display beyond the last click, but between display, search, social, video, and mobile.

Cross channel targeting and insights. In 2009, the use of search data for display retargeting became mainstream. In 2010, we saw advertisers begin to use audience insights from targeted display media, which is a low risk, cost effective test ground for understanding customer segments, and incorporating those insights into their full media mix. In 2011, we will see both of these trends expand and advertisers will leverage data and insights between display, website analytics, email, video, mobile and offline channels such as direct mail.

Matt Spiegel, CEO, Annalect Marketplaces, Omnicom Group

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2011 will be the year that marketers and agencies begin to take back full control of their digital advertising investments by utilizing buying platforms as the central tool for targeting, performance, and audience intelligence.

Kurt Unkel, SVP, VivaKi Nerve Center

Normally one would create a top 10 list for a request like this, but in keeping with this marketplace’s theme of efficiency, here are my top 8 predictions for 2011.

At least two DSP will be bought in 2011 – could be ad-serving or web analytics providers rounding out their offerings or could be SEMs accelerating their expansion into the more lucrative display marketplace.
Google will put display ads into Gmail – it’s not evil if it works, and Yahoo and Microsoft have known for awhile that mail works.
The Top 15 ‘premium’ publishers will be operating transparently via exchanges by year’s end – it may not be on the open market, but rather thru private exchanges, but we will see the top sites embracing the operational efficiencies of the exchange world more aggressively.
At least three DSPs will support ‘BYOA’ by year’s end – couldn’t agree more with Darren Herman on this one. The ability to either create your own or integrate a 3^rd party set of optimization rules will be at the core of a ‘true’ DSP. How you pay for it and license & protect it will be interesting…
There will be 4 video exchanges by year’s end – however, the private aspects of these exchanges will be what fuels the growth in Video in 2011, as scarcity will continue to constrain liquidity too much for viable open marketplaces to really thrive at the scale that’s in demand.
At least 5 publishers will enter the ‘branded’ data marketplace – sites that offer deep consumer intent-based insights will want to work transparently with buyers vs. being aggregated and blended together with other sources.
The OBA initiative will bring the clash between media buyers and sellers over data ownership to an end – this may be a reach, but if all BT sources must be registered and transparent, many data capture tactics employed today will have to be more rigidly audited by the media buyers and their clients. This will lead to more scrutiny and due diligence by buyers of BT then has ever existed at this scale before.
Clients will make up 25% of attendees at industry events by year’s end – The focus and scale of the exchange-centric marketplace and all the education efforts that agencies have developed to support it, will result in a substantially higher number of clients (i.e. marketers, not agencies) attending events.

Mitch Weinstein, VP, Director of Ad Operations at Universal McCann

An independent Mobile Ad Server will emerge as the leader in the Mobile space. Advertisers will no longer have to rely on site served placements.
The concept of serving customized dynamic creative based on 3rd party data (DCO + Audience Targeting) will continue to gain momentum, and will become more widely used
Apple will open up their platform, allowing for Flash to run on all devices.

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